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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still