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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."